Thesis and Summary
Paypal started the cardless movement and is now competing with many “newbees”. But it remains a dominant company that’s aiming to be a “network-of-networks”, which could significantly increase revenue as cash flow in the next 2 years.
- Core Competency: Technology to make digital payments cardless, frictionless.
- Product Differentiation? Need more. Aiming to become the “network of networks”.
- Revenue Growth? Solid. 20%-ish a year, due to growth in number of Active Users.
- Competition/Threats? Card Networks, Banks, Neobanks, Big Tech firms.
- Economic Moat? Inherent nature of product discourages switching; plus Network Effects.
- Strategy? Good. Thinking in terms of ecosystem to widen Moat. But too acquisitive.
- Return on Equity? Mid-teens. Need to find a way to improve margins.
- Sustainable Free Cash Flow? About $7 billion. Translates to roughly $120 per share.